Is the economy finally slowing down?
The ISM Manufacturing and Service Indexes both slipped below 50.
While manufacturing has been in a funk for a while, services have been red hot.
And nonfarm payrolls eased more than expected in April.
One month doesn’t make a trend. One month is simply a data point.
Two months is a line. Three months gives us a trend.
We’ve experienced head fakes before. Keep an eye on first-time jobless claims. It’s a pretty reliable leading indicator. A sustained tick higher would suggest business activity is slowing down.